A new report published by the Wireless World Forum (W2F) values the Mobile games market at EUR 1.65 billion in 2006, rising from EUR 0.46 billion in 2003.

Graham Brown, Research Director at W2Forum says: "Our valuations are conservative in the face of the bullish forecasts offered in the last 6 months. We have seen figures as high as EUR 38.1 billion, but these just fly in the face of all historical evidence from the electronic games market and consumer spending figures."

It has taken over 20 years for the electronic games sector to grow into a EUR 20 billion industry. If we can draw any value from the experience of those we have surveyed and interviewed in this market it is that the industry has matured over a definable evolution curve that can provide perspective on the growth of the mobile games industry.

Asian markets provide a useful insight into the evolution of mobile data markets. Japan and Korea, two widely-cited success-stories when discussing the Mobile Games market, together currently represent 64% of the total value of the global mobile games market. Significantly, Japan accounts for over half of the total international market. Evidence of the size of these markets, corroborated with figures from local operators such as NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone K.K., puts the current value of Mobile Games in these markets at EUR 400 million.

Brown adds, “It’s a common misconception to assume that the Mobile Games market in Japan is enjoying phenomenal success. The number of gamers is rising but excessive competition is driving down profitability and forcing consolidation.”

Understanding how the Japanese and Korean markets have developed has provided great insights into growth patterns applicable to Europe, Asia and North America.

“The markets in Europe and the U.S. have yet to enter this period of maturation, at the end of which lies profitability on the basis of operational effectiveness. Until then, companies need to implement ‘winning’ long term contingency plans to survive the period of excessive oversupply.”

W2F expects that growth in Europe and U.S. will be significant in the next 3 years and the US, although a late starter will narrow the gap on the rest of the world in terms of mobile gamers in the next 5 years. Despite Japan’s current dominance this will be eclipsed by China and the U.S. in 2006.